Strategy & Defense
Strategy, military security, and classic defense threats are still at the heart of current international relations. In this program, we will focus on military technology, trends in armaments and technology, modern strategic thinking, geopolitics, and armed conflicts.
Geopolitics Military Affairs Strategy & Defence
Can Ukraine end the war in 2025?
In 2025, Ukraine reflects on nearly three years of enduring Russian aggression, with increasing concerns among the public and experts...
Complex Challenges & Resilience Geopolitics Global Agenda Non-Military Security
What does Trump’s return to the White House mean for Africa?
Early next year, on January 20, 2025, Donald Trump, the incoming President of the United States, will be inaugurated into...
Geopolitics Military Affairs Strategic Thinking Strategy & Defence
Sudan Ravaged by Famine: Is an End to Civil War Possible?
Sudan, Africa’s third-largest country, is enduring a second year of brutal conflict that has spiralled into a humanitarian disaster. Fierce...
Geopolitics Military Affairs Strategy & Defence
Zelensky presented the “Victory Plan” for Ukraine
On October 16, 2024, Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, presented a “Victory Plan ” to Ukraine’s parliament (Verkhovna rada)....
Geopolitics Strategy & Defence
Russia’s Nuclear Strategy 2024: How Moscow is changing the rules of the game
Russia’s new nuclear doctrine marks a significant shift in the country’s approach to nuclear deterrence and reflects a broader strategy...
Geopolitics Military Affairs Strategy & Defence
Horn of Africa on the Brink of Another Conflict? Egypt, Somalia and Eritrea Join Forces Against Ethiopia’s Geopolitical Ambitions
Tensions in the Horn of Africa are escalating as Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea join forces to counter Ethiopia’s rising ambitions....
Geopolitics Military Affairs
Iran and Hezbollah: Key Players in the Rise of Houthi Power
According to a report by the United Nations, Yemen Houthi rebels have raised their capabilities from a local armed group...
Geopolitics
Eastern Lies and Western Dreams: How Russian Disinformation Campaign Shapes Moldova’s Future
Moldova’s pro-European president, Maia Sandu, will run for reelection in late October this year. A referendum on cementing the country’s...
Complex Challenges & Resilience Military Affairs Strategic Thinking Strategy & Defence
REAIM 2024: New guidelines for the military use of artificial intelligence
In early September 2024, the second summit of the REAIM (Responsible Artificial Intelligence in the Military Domain) project, co-organised by...
Geopolitics Military Affairs Strategy & Defence
Germany halves the 2025 budget for Ukraine
Germany’s proposed budget for 2025 shows a 50% reduction in military aid to Ukraine compared to the current year. The...
Strategic Thinking Strategy & Defence
Could an Istanbul Deal Have Brought Peace?
The experience of the post-Soviet republics with security-related agreements with Moscow is such that the 2022 Russian-Ukrainian talks had little...
Complex Challenges & Resilience Geopolitics Military Affairs Strategy & Defence Technology and Innovations
The development of China’s nuclear ambitions
China’s recent demands for the United States to adopt a “no-first-use” policy and to stop protecting allies from nuclear threats...
Complex Challenges & Resilience Geopolitics Global Agenda Non-Military Security
Appeasement and Stabilitocracy: The EU–Serbia Lithium Deal
The EU and Serbia finalised a controversial lithium mining agreement essential for electric vehicle batteries. Amidst Serbia’s alignment with Russia...
Geopolitics Military Affairs
Israel is a leader in the use of artificial intelligence. It helped them prevent a missile strike from Iran but also killed thousands of Palestinians
Many countries are increasingly experimenting with the use of AI in military technologies and for ensuring national security. Among the...
Complex Challenges & Resilience Geopolitics Global Agenda Military Affairs Non-Military Security Strategic Thinking Strategy & Defence
Cybersecurity and the Defense Industry Should Become Priorities After NATO’s 2024 Summit
NATO’s 2024 summit is over; as always, it has brought forward multiple topics. Especially given the current turbulent geopolitical and...
Geopolitics Strategy & Defence
Are Israel and Hezbollah on the Brink of the War?
On 13 June, the Lebanese Hezbollah fired more than 200 rockets and drones into Israel. The attack is believed to...
Geopolitics Non-Military Security Technology and Innovations
With dragon on the neck: how (not) to face the growing Chinese competition in the car industry
The forthcoming decision to increase EU tariffs on selected Chinese electric vehicles is unlikely to systematically benefit the European car...
Geopolitics Non-Military Security
The Georgian government delegitimises the protests with deceptive Facebook ads. The President vetoed the bill on “foreign agents”
In early April 2024, Georgian Dream, the ruling party in Georgia, pushed through a controversial law on “foreign agents” in...
Geopolitics Global Agenda
Robert Fico in Azerbaijan: Will Slovakia become a bridge between Brussels and Baku?
The visit of Prime Minister Robert Fico and his delegation to Azerbaijan on 6-7 May 2024 represented a new impetus...
Geopolitics Military Affairs
Escalation between Israel and Iran in the context of the Gaza conflict: Regional war on the horizon?
On April 1, 2024, Israel destroyed one of the buildings of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. The attack left 16...
Geopolitics Strategic Thinking
NATO has been (for years) electing a new Secretary General. Who is running, and what are the chances?
A European always chairs the top civilian post in NATO. The top military post is always held by an American....
Geopolitics Military Affairs
On how Ukraine desperately needs help from the West and why its victory in the war is in our best interest
In February 2024, two years have passed since the beginning of Russian aggression against Ukraine. From the beginning, the total...
Geopolitics Military Affairs
Life in Gaza is about the choice between displacement and death. Only a fraction of Palestinians manage to escape
The Gaza Strip is currently the most isolated piece of land. Its inhabitants have been taken hostage by the radical...
Geopolitics
UN agency staff were involved in the October terror attack on Israel. Will the suspension of international aid lead to a humanitarian catastrophe in the Gaza Strip?
Israel has accused the main UN agency in Gaza of involvement in the Hamas terror attack of October 7, 2023,...
Geopolitics Military Affairs
Turkey agreed to the entry of Sweden into NATO
On Tuesday, 23 January 2024, the Turkish Parliament approved Sweden’s candidacy for NATO membership. Thus, after long months of waiting,...
Geopolitics
Leaning towards China or the West? Key elections in Taiwan have faced manipulative interference from China
On Saturday, January 13, the people of Taiwan elected a new president, vice president, and representatives of the parliament. The...
Geopolitics Military Affairs
Iran opens another front against Israel: Yemen’s Houthi attacks threaten global shipping
In response to Israel’s operation in Gaza, Yemen’s Houthi rebel movement has stepped up attacks against shipping in the Red...
Geopolitics
China’s position on the Gaza conflict
During the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip, the position of most international actors is relatively straightforward. The US supports...
Geopolitics
Republicans in the US Senate block aid to Ukraine and Israel
On Wednesday, December 6, 2023, Republicans in the US Congress’s Senate rejected the Biden administration’s request for financial aid worth...
Geopolitics Non-Military Security
The impact of the Israeli-Palestinian war on the global energy sector. Will countries become more reliant on clean energy?
The oil and gas market has not yet recovered from the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and is...
Geopolitics
Israel labelled as a terrorist state: Turkish President Erdogan and his motivation for supporting Hamas
The conflict in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Hamas is redefining relationships and dynamics within the region. Saudi Arabia...
Geopolitics
Does Iran want war with Israel, or is it too big of a bite for Tehran?
The attack by Palestinian group Hamas on Israel carries the potential to destabilise the Middle East significantly. Specifically, the potential...
Military Affairs Strategic Thinking
War in Ukraine: how Ukraine could keep the momentum and not be halted by winter
As Ukraine braces itself for another winter amidst a conflict that has lasted nearly two years, the war’s tactics must...
Geopolitics
The energy deal between Pakistan and Russia may influence the future direction of the Asian country. Will the Western ally deepen its relations with Moscow?
Pakistan, a country in Southwest Asia, recently concluded an energy agreement with Russia, claiming the need to diversify its energy...
Geopolitics Non-Military Security Technology and Innovations
Hamas is supported by pro-Russian and Islamist hackers, Israel is aided by Indians
The recent terrorist attack by Hamas has ignited another round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. In addition to ground battles, there...
Geopolitics Non-Military Security
Has the EU turned its back on Armenia due to the energy deal with Azerbaijan?
The long-standing conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has come to an end, and it appears that the European Union has not been...
Geopolitics Strategic Thinking
Azerbaijan occupies Nagorno-Karabakh. How will the geopolitical situation in the Caucasus and the Middle East develop in the future?
On 19 September 2023, the Azerbaijani armed forces launched an offensive into Nagorno-Karabakh. Within 24 hours, Azerbaijan was able to...
Geopolitics
Syria Teetering on the Edge of Collapse Again: Assad Regime Facing Its Worst Crisis in Years
Despite the diplomatic achievement of Syria’s readmission to the Arab League in May 2023, the Bashar al-Assad regime currently confronts...
Geopolitics
The EU must be ready to welcome new members by 2030
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has contributed to Ukraine and Moldova gaining candidate status in June 2023, giving a new impetus...
Geopolitics Military Affairs
Army officers occupied government buildings, dissolved parliament and imprisoned the president in Gabon. What is behind the latest of the coups in Africa?
On 30 August, a military coup took place in Gabon. The coup took place shortly after the announcement of the...
Geopolitics
Regional instability and uranium market constraints. The consequences of the military coup in Niger may reach beyond the borders of the continent
On July 26th, Niger, the largest country in West Africa, experienced a military coup that saw the overthrow of democratically...
Geopolitics
Israeli-Saudi Reconciliation Challenges
Details regarding a potential Saudi-Israeli reconciliation brokered by the United States have begun to surface. The triangular bargain between Saudi...
Geopolitics Global Agenda Non-Military Security
Climate Change Effects: The Growing Risks of Conflict and Instability
The current threat of climate change and its impacts is being felt in many parts of the world and presents...
Geopolitics Military Affairs
Controversial defense bill authorizing the largest military budget in US history
On July 14, the Republican-led House of Representatives approved the defense bill authorizing the largest military budget in US history,...
Geopolitics Non-Military Security Technology and Innovations
Hacked satellites, attacks on Wagner’s websites or shutdown of emergency services. What does cyberwar in Ukraine look like?
For almost a year and a half now, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has been accompanied by numerous cyber operations...
Geopolitics Military Affairs
The Attack on Jenin. The Largest Israeli Military Operation in The West Bank In 20 Years
On July 3rd, Israel staged one of the largest military operations in the occupied West Bank region since 2002. The...
Geopolitics Military Affairs
The EU militarily support Ukraine through two European defence funds. We explain their functioning and why the EU massively increases their budgets
The European Union (EU) institutions have announced the allocation of additional funding to their defence funds – the European Defence...
Geopolitics Non-Military Security
Netanyahu visits Beijing. Will this jeopardise the long-standing US-Israeli alliance?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed on 27 June that he had been invited by the Chinese government to pay...
Geopolitics Non-Military Security
Algeria deepens its ties with Moscow. Is it a challenge for the European gas market?
On June 14, An Algerian delegation led by President Abdelmadjid Tebboun arrived in Russia following an invitation from Russian President...
Geopolitics Non-Military Security
Chinese spy base on Cuba indicates Havana’s deepening relations with U.S. rivals
The US claims China operates a spy base in Cuba to intercept US electronic communications. Beijing’s intelligence activity is believed...
Geopolitics Military Affairs
Andreas Umland: Four Challenges Facing a Ukrainian-Russian Truce. Part III: The Crimean Conundrum
Executive Summary There is currently an intense debate about scenarios for ending, or at least freezing, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine....
Geopolitics Military Affairs
Mali has called on the United Nations to withdraw its peacekeeping mission from the country “without delay “. Wagner Group is the likely replacement
On June 16, Mali called on the UN to withdraw its peacekeeping mission – UN Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)...
Geopolitics Strategic Thinking
Japan Deepens Its Cooperation with NATO And Strengthens Its Military Capabilities. Could Tokyo Become Another Member of The Alliance in The Future?
NATO is in negotiations with Japan to open a liaison office no later than 2024 in Tokyo. At the same...
Strategic Thinking
Andreas Umland: Four Challenges Facing a Ukrainian-Russian Truce. Part II: Domestic Hindrances for a Russian-Ukrainian Truce
Picture credit: designed by artist Boris Groh/Ukraine Postal Service Summary There is intense public debate over when and how to...
Geopolitics
Growing instability in Tunisia. Is another wave of migration to the EU on the horizon?
Tunisia, the North African country that was the birthplace of the Arab Spring, faces severe political and economic problems. Under...
Geopolitics
Heaviest clashes between Israel and Gaza militants in months
The tensions between Israel and the Gaza Militants increased following the death of a prominent Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) member...
Geopolitics
Is Pakistan in danger of a military coup? The arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan has exacerbated tensions between the military and civil society
Footage of the dramatic arrest of Imran Khan, the former Prime Minister of Pakistan, has sparked nationwide protests in the...
Military Affairs Strategic Thinking
Ukraine’s counteroffensive: operational opportunity or political choice?
For weeks, many people following the conflict in Ukraine have been waiting for a counteroffensive that would shift the initiative...
Geopolitics Military Affairs
The power struggle between generals in Sudan has the potential to destabilise the entire sub-Saharan region
Just days before Sudan descended into deadly conflict, its two most powerful generals were very close to a deal. The...
Geopolitics
On Macron, France, and European autonomy
On his way back from an official State visit to China, French President Macron urged the EU to reduce dependency...
Geopolitics
Hungary deepens energy cooperation with Russia and remains Moscow’s Trojan horse in the European Union
Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs Szijjártó revisited Moscow, where on April 11, he signed a new contract on energy supplies,...
Geopolitics Non-Military Security
The gradual decline of democracy in India: Musk’s Twitter helps the government censor its critics
At the request of the Indian government, Twitter recently blocked more than 100 accounts belonging to prominent politicians, activists and...
Geopolitics
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris deepens U.S.-African relations on a diplomatic crusade. What is at stake in the battle for the second-largest continent?
In late March, Kamala Harris visited Ghana, Tanzania, and Zambia, becoming the third high-ranking US official to visit the African...
Geopolitics Global Agenda
The agreement on normalisation of relations opens the way for Kosovo and Serbia to join the EU. Russian influence may complicate the outcome of the negotiations
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti met in Ohrid, Macedonia, on Saturday, 18 March, to negotiate...
Geopolitics Global Agenda
Assad’s Quakeplomacy
On February 6 2023, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck southern and central Turkey and northern and western Syria. The quake...
Geopolitics Global Agenda Non-Military Security
From old foes to new partners? The implications of Iran-Saudi Arabia Rapprochement
On 10 March, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced a ground-breaking agreement to normalize diplomatic relations and reopen embassies in both...
Geopolitics Global Agenda
TV, leaders and bot farms: the underestimated but far-reaching Russian disinformation campaign in Italy
On May 1, 2022, 3 months after the start of the invasion of Ukraine, Russian FA ministry Sergei Lavrov was...
Geopolitics Strategic Thinking
Moscow’s Red Lines, Nuclear Threat, and Restraint
Red lines and nukes Whenever the Ukrainian armed forces achieved something vis-à-vis their Russian foe, and occasionally even without immediate...
Geopolitics Military Affairs
The International Court of Justice ordered Azerbaijan to end the blockade of the only corridor between Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh
On 22 February, the Hague-based International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that Azerbaijan must guarantee freedom of movement along the...
Geopolitics Military Affairs
Zelensky at a summit of European leaders and visits London and Paris. Is the request for fighter jets and a European future for Ukraine realistic?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attended the European Union leaders meeting at the European Council summit on 9-10 February 2023. Just...
Geopolitics Military Affairs
Russia’s diplomatic offensive in Africa. Lavrov offers weapons and mercenaries
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Viktorovich Lavrov has visited Mali, Mauritania and Sudan as part of his second trip to Africa...
Geopolitics Military Affairs
Andreas Umland: Four Challenges Facing a Ukrainian-Russian Truce. Part I: The Constitutional Impasse
Executive Summary The already heated discussion among policymakers and policy shapers in the West on how the Russian-Ukrainian war could...
Geopolitics Global Agenda Strategic Thinking
Andreas Umland: How the West Can Help Ukraine: Three Strategies for Achieving a Ukrainian Victory and Rebirth
Executive Summary The geopolitical salience of the Russia–Ukraine War and the remoteness of Ukraine’s accession to the European Union or...
Geopolitics Military Affairs
NATO denied the request to deploy Serbian forces in Kosovo: upcoming months can decide the future of Kosovo and Serbia
The relationship between Serbia and Kosovo has been strained since February 2008 when Kosovo unilaterally declared independence. Throughout the years...
Geopolitics Global Agenda
The EU got to an agreement with Hungary about €18bn aid package for Ukraine
At the beginning of December, the situation between the European Union and Hungary escalated. After Brussels recommended freezing €7,5 billion...
Geopolitics Military Affairs
Poland missile explosion: analysis of actors’ reactions with regards to the possibility of accidental escalation between NATO and Russia
On November 15, 2022, fragments of a (presumably two) missiles hit the territory of Poland. They struck the abandoned buildings...
Geopolitics Military Affairs Strategic Thinking
The new US National security strategy shows that America will focus on competing with China and containing Russia
On October 12, the White House published the National Security Strategy (NSS) of the USA for the upcoming years. The...
Geopolitics Global Agenda
Peace talks may end bloody war in Ethiopian Tigray region
Delegates of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) met in Pretoria, South Africa...
Geopolitics Non-Military Security
Historic agreement between Israel and Lebanon brings hope for the EU
Israel and Lebanon signed a historic US-brokered maritime border demarcation agreement in the Mediterranean Sea at the end of October....
Military Affairs Strategic Thinking
Russian anti-population campaign in Ukraine. Why has Russia taken this step, what is it pursuing and what are its possible consequences?
The current situation in Ukraine is beginning to deteriorate following the launch of Russia’s counter-population campaign. Ukrainian President Zelensky announced...
Geopolitics
Armenia and Azerbaijan are one step closer to a peace agreement. What opportunities and possibilities would peace bring for the region and the EU?
Nikol Pashinyan, Prime Minister of Armenia, and Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan, reached an agreement on mutual recognition of territorial...
Geopolitics Global Agenda Military Affairs
The second coup in Burkina Faso within a year creates the possibility of a rise in Russian influence in Africa
On Friday, September 30, 2022, army units in the capital of Burkina Faso, Ouagadougou, began to occupy key positions and...
Geopolitics Global Agenda Military Affairs Non-Military Security Strategic Thinking Technology and Innovations
Nord Stream pipelines could be damaged as a consequence of a sabotage
Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines were damaged by three explosions on Monday, September 26. Nord Stream...
Military Affairs Strategic Thinking
Analysis of the offensive near Kharkiv. What factors were behind Ukrainian success?
Ukrainian forces gained the initiative and successfully carried out a counter-offensive in eastern Kharkiv. Its implementation is important in terms...
Geopolitics Military Affairs Strategic Thinking
Azerbaijan attacked Armenia. Why now and what does it mean for the Caucuses, Middle East, and Europe?
On Monday, September 12, 2022, Azerbaijani troops began intensively bombing Armenian military targets on the internationally recognized territory of Armenia....
Geopolitics Military Affairs
Deadly clashes in Tripoli. Will the worst fighting in two years reignite the civil war in Libya?
On Saturday, 27 August, the Libyan capital Tripoli was rocked by the heaviest fighting in two years. Clashes between rival...
Military Affairs Strategic Thinking
Russian military exercise Vostok 2022 is taking place. China and India are also participating
On Thursday, September 1, military exercise Vostok 2022 started in the eastern part of Russia. Approximately 50 thousand soldiers and...
Geopolitics Global Agenda
The proposed changes to electoral law in Bosnia and Herzegovina sparked mass protests
At the end of July, mass protests broke out in Bosnia. It happened after the public got access to a...
Geopolitics Non-Military Security
Tensions rise in Kosovo as the local Serbs protest. Implementation of the controversial law has been suspended
Tensions escalated between Serbia and Kosovo on Sunday, 31 July. Serbian demonstrators blocked roads and shot at Kosovo police officers....
Geopolitics Military Affairs
Bagdad accuses Turkey of an artillery attack that killed nine civilians in Iraqi Kurdistan
Iraq accused neighbouring Turkey of a deadly attack on the Barakh tourist resort in the Governorate of Dohuk in Iraq´s...
Geopolitics
Amid US crippling sanctions, Iran and Venezuela sign 20-year cooperation deal
Iran and Venezuela signed a 20-year cooperation roadmap during a two-day official visit by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to Tehran...
Geopolitics Global Agenda
Why does Turkey block Sweden and Finland from joining NATO?
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reiterated on Saturday that Ankara continues to oppose the accession of Sweden and Finland to...
Geopolitics Military Affairs Non-Military Security
Denmark joins the EU’s common defence policy 30 years after opting out
Denmark agreed to join the EU’s common security and defence policy in a referendum triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine....
Geopolitics Military Affairs
Ankara threatens to launch a new military operation in northern Syria
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Monday, May 23, that Ankara would soon launch a new military incursion in...
Geopolitics Military Affairs
What Would Finland’s Membership Bring to NATO?
The war in Ukraine has significantly changed the security policy of Scandinavia’s two hitherto neutral states – Sweden and especially...
Global Agenda Strategic Thinking
The Case Against the Concept of Great Power Competition
Great power competition is a trendy concept that frames the current perception of international affairs held by many. As such,...
Geopolitics Military Affairs Strategic Thinking
Transnistria may become a new front in Russia’s aggression against Ukraine
In recent weeks, there have been discussions about the possible involvement of the separatist republic of Transnistria (located between Ukraine...