Sudan, Africa’s third-largest country, is enduring a second year of brutal conflict that has spiralled into a humanitarian disaster. Fierce fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) threatens state collapse while the nation grapples with the worst famine in 40 years. Despite the enormity of the crisis, the war remains overshadowed by other global conflicts, hindering humanitarian aid and complicating peace efforts.
The Sudanese civil war began on April 15, 2023, following an RSF coup attempt crushed by SAF leader General Abdel Fattah Burhan. Tensions between Burhan and RSF General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) date back to 2021 when they jointly toppled Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok’s civilian government. Their alliance fractured over disputes concerning the RSF’s integration into the national army.
Hemedti was formerly one of the leaders of the Janjaweed militia, known for brutal attacks on Darfur’s non-Arab population, particularly the Zaghawa, Fur, and Masalit ethnic groups. It was from the Janjaweed that the current Rapid Support Force (RSF), which Hemedti commands, emerged.
Since the beginning of the fighting, the RSF has gained control of most of the capital, Khartoum and the western region of Darfur. The Sudanese army controls the strategic port of Port Sudan. While the RSF mostly controls the western part of the country, the SAF has the upper hand in the east. However, the front lines are now rather opaque. Both sides in the conflict are cooperating with various local armed groups whose presence and activity further complicate the fighting. In South Kordofan, near the border with South Sudan, a three-way struggle between the RSF, the SAF and a faction of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) is ongoing.
In September 2024, the Sudanese army launched an offensive targeting Khartoum, Sennar and Gezira. This gave the SAF momentum on its side for the first time since the war began. At the same time, the RSF is strengthening its positions on the western border to secure supply routes from Libya and Chad.
The war between the two generals has caused one of the worst humanitarian crises of our time. More than 10 million people have been displaced, and half of the country, nearly 25 million people, are in need of humanitarian assistance. A famine was confirmed in the Zamzam refugee camp in North Darfur in August 2024. Already in April 2024, a child was dying there every two hours as a result of starvation, and the situation has worsened since then. Today, famine is likely to be spreading across the country. Sudan’s former breadbasket, the state of Gezira, is also affected.
The RSF is continuing in the extremely cruel tradition of its predecessor, the Janjaweed militia, and is once again undertaking ethnic cleansing against non-Arab communities in Darfur. This is also the reason why almost 700 thousand people have fled to neighbouring Chad, which is facing an unprecedented influx of refugees. The situation is putting pressure on the Chadian President, Mahamat Déby, who belongs to the Zaghawa ethnic group – one of those suffering on both sides of the Chad-Sudan border. Déby faces criticism from his countrymen, who accuse him of allowing supplies for the RSF from the United Arab Emirates to flow through Chad.
The extreme humanitarian situation is further complicated by the difficulty of transporting humanitarian aid into Sudan. Not only the RSF but also the government’s SAF is restricting these supplies, which has resulted in the UN World Food Programme delivering only a fraction of the amount needed. At the same time, both sides are alleged to be committing brutal violations of international humanitarian law.
The Sudanese civil war is also having increasingly fundamental regional repercussions. Because of Sudan’s 800-kilometre coastline on the Red Sea, the conflict is affecting not only Africa but also the Middle East and even Europe, where there is growing concern about increased migration.
Several regional powers are actively involved in the conflict. Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are pursuing their own geopolitical interests, with an indirect power struggle between the Saudis and the UAE. The Sudanese army is also fighting thanks to the support of Russia or Iran. Russia is currently supporting the SAF in exchange for the opportunity to build a military base on the Red Sea near Port Sudan. Iran’s support for the SAF is aimed at curbing the influence of the United Arab Emirates and potentially increasing its influence in the Red Sea.
On the other hand, the RSF under Hemedti’s leadership benefits from massive support from the UAE, which thus secures access to Sudan’s land and natural resources. Hemedti has close ties with the UAE – the RSF fought alongside the Emiratis in Yemen and Libya. Abu Dhabi is also the largest buyer of Sudanese gold, which is controlled by Hemedti.
The current phase of the conflict in Sudan has reached a critical juncture, with prospects for a peaceful resolution increasingly pessimistic. Peace initiatives, including an attempt by the United States to hold SAF and RSF talks in Switzerland, are failing. Its continuation may definitely bring Sudan a Libyan scenario with parallel governments or a total state failure. Such a development could destabilise the wider region, similar to the civil wars in Libya or Somalia.
An end to Sudan’s civil war remains possible, but it remains a distant prospect. The nation urgently requires a surge in humanitarian aid, heightened international focus, and coordinated global pressure to bring the fighting to a halt.
The picture was adapted from the original design, which was sourced from https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/world/2024/10/22/at-least-50-killed-in-2-days-of-fighting-in-sudan/