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The development of China’s nuclear ambitions

Jerguš Lajoš

China’s recent demands for the United States to adopt a “no-first-use” policy and to stop protecting allies from nuclear threats have indicated a significant shift in international nuclear arms matters. These demands come amid rising tensions between the two powers over Taiwan and reflect China’s broader strategic ambitions.

China’s nuclear arms strategy has long emphasised a “no-first-use policy” and has framed its arsenal as a deterrent rather than an offensive tool. This policy contrasts with the more aggressive stance of other nuclear powers. Maintaining the principle of ‘no first use’ is the basis of China’s nuclear doctrine, which aims to reduce global nuclear risk and promote disarmament. However, recent developments indicate a shift towards a more assertive nuclear posture.

China’s release of documents advocating a non-use treaty between the P5 countries underlines its determination to implement the policy at a visible level. However, the rapid expansion of the capacity of its nuclear arsenal, estimated at around 500 nuclear warheads, and its refusal to disclose the true size of its stockpile raises questions about its long-term intentions. Estimates by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) suggest a significant increase in China’s nuclear capability, with an expansion to around 1,000 warheads by 2030.

The suspension of nuclear negotiations between China and the US represents a critical juncture in their bilateral relations. This decision was a direct response by China to the US arms sales to Taiwan, which Beijing considers a serious threat to its sovereignty. The US, on the other hand, accuses China of expanding its nuclear capabilities without engaging in arms control discussions, thereby undermining global non-proliferation efforts.

Taiwan has long been an important flashpoint in US-China relations. China is increasing its military capabilities, including its nuclear capability, in part due to its goal of unifying Taiwan with the mainland. Beijing sees continued U.S. arms sales to the island as a provocation that heightens tensions and theoretically justifies its nuclear expansion. The possibility of a conventional military defeat over Taiwan that would push China to use nuclear weapons further complicates the evolving strategic situation.

Among other things, China’s modernisation and expansion of nuclear weapons have profound consequences for global security. The development of new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), including the DF-41, which are capable of striking the entire US territory, marks a strategic shift towards strengthening ‘second-strike capabilities’. This development could potentially unleash a new arms race involving not only the US but also other nuclear-armed states such as Russia.

The United States has already taken steps to increase the transparency of its nuclear arsenal and has made declassified information public to build trust and promote non-proliferation. Conversely, China’s lack of transparency about its nuclear capability encourages mistrust and speculation. The international community, including the US, has called on Beijing to be more transparent to ensure strategic stability and avoid misunderstandings that could escalate into conflict.

In the submission, China criticised nuclear sharing agreements with other states, particularly by the US. These agreements, which involve extending nuclear protection to allies, are seen by China as reducing the incentives of non-nuclear states to pursue disarmament. Beijing’s call to abolish these practices underscores its strategic goal of weakening US influence in Europe and Asia.

Given the current trajectory of China’s nuclear programme, several scenarios could unfold in the future. One possible scenario is a renewed arms race, with China, the US, and potentially Russia continuing to expand and modernise their nuclear arsenals. This could lead to increased global instability and an increased risk of nuclear conflict. Alternatively, successful negotiations could lead to mutual agreements on a policy of non-use of nuclear weapons and a reduction in the number of weapons, thereby increasing global security and reducing the threat of nuclear war. 

Another scenario involves an escalation of regional conflicts, particularly in relation to Taiwan, to the extent that the use of nuclear weapons would be considered. This would pose a significant danger to regional and global peace. Enhancing dialogue between China and the US is essential to manage these scenarios to address mutual concerns and avoid misperceptions. Transparency measures should be encouraged to build trust. Strengthening international treaties, such as the current NPT, can also contribute to mitigating risks, as can efforts to conclude new agreements on non-proliferation policy and arms control. In order to manage and mitigate conflicts in critical areas, such as the aforementioned Taiwan, it is essential to establish regional security mechanisms involving China, the US and other interested parties.

China’s nuclear weapons development is at a critical juncture with significant implications for global security. The interplay between its strategic objectives, regional ambitions and international relations will affect the future of nuclear weapons (non-)proliferation. While the way forward is fraught with challenges, proactive measures aimed at dialogue, transparency and strengthening international frameworks can mitigate risks and promote a stable and secure world.

The future of global nuclear security depends on the ability of major powers to overcome short-term geopolitical rivalries and work together to achieve long-term stability. China’s growing nuclear capability must be balanced by strong diplomatic efforts to ensure that advances in military technology do not overtake the frameworks designed to control them. The international community must prioritise engagement over isolation and cooperation over competition to avoid a catastrophic arms race. Effective communication, transparency and compliance with international agreements are essential to maintain strategic stability and prevent the escalation of nuclear threats.

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